Causal Stories
Story 129
Louie and Claire are playing a game of basketball, and they made a bet with their friends who are watching on the sidelines. If either Louie makes a 3-point shot or Claire makes a 3-point shot during the game, then they'll win $100 and split it down the middle. Just when the game started, Louie immediately got the ball at the 3-point line. He looked to the basket, focused his shot, and made a 3-point shot right at the beginning of the game. Louie, Claire, and their friends continued playing, but as hard as they tried, Louie and Claire couldn't make another shot. And then right at the end of the game as the clock was winding down, Claire got the ball at the 3-point line. She looked to the basket, focused her shot, and made a 3- point shot right at the buzzer. Then the game ended. Because they would win $100 if either Louie made a 3-point shot or Claire made a 3- point shot, Louie and Claire won $100 and split it down the middle. Think about what could have been different in the story that you just read. Which event do you imagine happening differently: Louie making the 3-point shot right at the beginning of the game. Claire making the 3-point shot right at the buzzer.
Question
Did Louie and Claire win the $100 bet because Louie made the 3-point shot?
Majority Answer: Yes
Answer distribution over 25 people:
Is Ambiguous: False
Factor
These are the factors and their attributes present in this story.
Action Omission: Action
Causal Structure: Disjunctive
Time: Early Cause