Causal Stories

Story 127

Louie is playing a game of basketball, and he made a bet with his friends who are watching on the sidelines. If Louie either makes a layup or makes a 3-point shot during the game, then he'll win $100. Just when the game started, Louie immediately got the ball at the 3-point line. He looked to the basket, dribbled in, and then made a layup right at the beginning of the game. Louie and his friends continued playing, but as hard as he tried, Louie couldn't make another shot. And then right at the end of the game as the clock was winding down, Louie got the ball at the 3-point line. He looked to the basket, focused his shot, and made a 3-point shot right at the buzzer. Then the game ended. Because Louie would win $100 if he either made a layup or a 3-point shot, Louie won $100.

Question

Did Louie win the $100 bet because he made the layup?

Majority Answer: Yes

Answer distribution over 25 people:

P(Yes): 0.60 P(No): 0.40

Is Ambiguous: True

Factor

These are the factors and their attributes present in this story.

Action Omission: Action

Causal Structure: Disjunctive

Time: Early Cause