Causal Stories

Story 114

Jim, Carol, Bob, and Nancy are researchers in a remote area, and they have a limited supply of electricity. Because of their limited supply, the electricity only comes on in the evenings from 8-9 PM, and they have to restrict who can use power on certain days. If two people turn on their lamps at the same time, the breaker will fail. The breaker will not fail if fewer people turn on their lamps at the same time. Jim is not supposed to use his lamp on Thursdays. Carol, Bob, and Nancy may all use their lamps on Thursdays. This Thursday Jim turns on his lamp at 8 PM. Just then, Carol also turns on her lamp. Since two people turned on their lamps at the same time, the circuit breaker failed.

Question

Did Jim turning on his lamp at 8 PM cause the circuit breaker to fail?

Majority Answer: Yes

Answer distribution over 25 people:

P(Yes): 0.52 P(No): 0.48

Is Ambiguous: True

Factor

These are the factors and their attributes present in this story.

Action Omission: Action

Causal Structure: Conjunctive

Event Normality: Abnormal

Norm Type: Prescriptive Norm

Time: Same Time Cause