Causal Stories

Story 111

Drew, Kylie, Oliver, and Jen are regular customers at a small, local coffee shop. Given the selling price of the coffee and the cost of daily operation, the coffee shop will turn a profit if anyone orders coffee on a given day. Only one person ordering coffee is needed for the coffee shop to turn a profit that day. Drew, Kylie, Oliver, and Jen all usually order coffee on Tuesdays. This Tuesday, as usual, Drew ordered coffee. The same day, Kylie ordered coffee, Oliver ordered coffee, and Jen also ordered coffee. Since at least one person ordered coffee on Tuesday, the coffee shop made a profit that day.

Question

Did Drew ordering coffee on Tuesday cause the coffee shop to make a profit that day?

Majority Answer: Yes

Answer distribution over 25 people:

P(Yes): 0.60 P(No): 0.40

Is Ambiguous: True

Factor

These are the factors and their attributes present in this story.

Action Omission: Action

Causal Structure: Disjunctive

Event Normality: Normal

Norm Type: Statistical Norm

Time: Same Time Cause