Causal Stories

Story 10

A machine is set up in such a way that it will short circuit if both the black wire and the red wire touch the battery at the same time. The machine will not short circuit if just one of these wires touches the battery. The black wire is designated as the one that is supposed to touch the battery, while the red wire is supposed to remain in some other part of the machine. One day, the black wire and the red wire both end up touching the battery at the same time. There is a short circuit.

Question

Did the fact that the black wire touched the battery cause the machine to short circuit?

Majority Answer: No

Answer distribution over 25 people:

P(Yes): 0.36 P(No): 0.64

Is Ambiguous: False

Factor

These are the factors and their attributes present in this story.

Causal Structure: Conjunctive

Event Normality: Normal

Norm Type: Prescriptive Norm

Time: Same Time Cause